Ignore the critics. There is no plane that can compete with the F-35

By Alex Wilner and Marco Wyss

Stephen Harper’s recent electoral victory all but guarantees that Canadian air force pilots will be flying the Joint Strike Fighter, or F-35, in the years ahead. With the fighter jet debate finally over, the episode affords Canadians with two lessons to apply in future decisions over military procurement.

Today, there’s a quasi-revolution taking place in fighter jet technology. We are entering a period dominated by “fifth-generation” aircraft. These aircraft will have advanced stealth capabilities, advanced sensors and new kinds of control and display technology, as well as the ability to maintain high speeds at longer distances than was the case with past generations of jets.
Because of this, while opponents of the F-35 argue that Canada’s aging CF-18 Hornets can be replaced more cheaply with fourth- (and “fourth-plus-”) generation aircraft, they’re missing the point. Upgraded fourth-generation aircraft — like the American F-18 Super Hornet, for example — will surely be able to fly the kinds of missions Canada already participates in, but will essentially be obsolete from the moment we purchase them. Eventually fourth-generation aircraft will go the way of third- and second-generation aircraft: to the dump.

Fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 will have a qualitative edge over older models. Period. Our allies have gotten the message: Britain, Australia, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey and Norway will all be flying F-35s by 2020. Israel and Japan are likely to follow.

If Canadians want to equip their air force with the best available tools, they need to focus on next generation technology. There’s little point in looking backwards. The risk in spending a lesser fortune today on a supped-up version of the CF-18 is that Canada will find itself replacing outdated hardware before long. That’s an expensive proposition.

Second, where Canadians buy their weapons can be just as important as to what they buy. When a government decides to purchase military hardware from another country, it isn’t only thinking about improving the quality of its armed forces. It’s also thinking about the political and strategic signals it’s sending to others. The arms trade can be a political minefield. Ideally, Canada will buy its military hardware from an ally. In doing so, we’ll avoid sending an unintended message with our purchase and we’ll pre-emptively grease the wheels in the event spare parts are needed during periods of crisis. It’s important, too, that Canada signs off with a manufacturer that will survive over the long haul. That will ease with maintenance, upgrades, and future developments.

In terms of fighter-jets, that leaves Canada with few options. We could approach the French or the Swedes. Both have sophisticated warplanes in the Rafale and Gripen but, like the Super Hornet, these jets rely on older technology. And given the huge investment needed to leap into the fifth-generation, both countries are likely to close shop. It’s possible that a European consortium will emerge in the future, but it’s a long shot. Several European partners have already invested in the F-35, so they won’t be inclined to support another venture. Like it or not, the era of the European fighter is coming to a close.

That leaves Russia and China. Both countries are actively developing next generation fighters to rival the F-35. Russia began testing the PAK-FA a year ago, while China unveiled its J-20 prototype in January. But are Canadians really prepared to fly Russian or Chinese jets? What would our allies think? The political and strategic ramifications would be monumental.

Decisions over how best to arm Canada’s military are always complex, but there are lessons from the F-35 episode Canadians would be wise to consider in the future.

National Post

Alex Wilner and Marco Wyss are senior fellows at the Center for Security Studies at the ETH-Zurich, Switzerland. Wilner is also a fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa.


.http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/05/16/ignore-the-critics-there-is-no-plane-that-can-compete-with-the-f-35/

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